Rising Inflation Complicates Peak Season Pricing for Ecommerce Sellers

Ecommerce sellers face a mixed pricing picture ahead of peak season, with rising inflation coinciding with forecasts of substantial holiday discounts.

US consumer prices rose 3.7% annually in September 2026, up from 3.4% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which released the figures on October 14. Gasoline accounted for over half of September’s monthly increase.

Prices varied by category. Toys cost 6.6% more than a year earlier, and apparel rose 3.4%, while furniture and bedding fell 2.4% and appliances declined 1%. These figures measure consumer prices across retail channels.

Meanwhile, Adobe forecasts peak holiday discounts of 29% for toys and 23% for apparel, measured against listed prices.

For ecommerce sellers, these trends make promotion planning more complicated. Matching competitors’ discounts could reduce margins where purchasing and fulfillment costs leave limited room for markdowns. National inflation figures cannot establish an individual seller’s costs or pricing flexibility.

Before confirming offers, establish full visibility into landed costs to determine the true cost of goods sold (COGS). Then factor in marketplace fees, outbound shipping and expected returns to assess each promotion’s profitability. Set minimum margins for promoted products on each channel and use inventory levels to target discounts where they support stock clearance.

Book a Descartes demo to explore how our ecommerce solutions can help you manage inventory and shipping costs throughout peak season.