Global Shipping Report: Record January Imports Ahead of New China Tariffs and Mexico/Canada Tariff Uncertainty 

In January 2025, U.S. container imports reached a record 2,487,470 TEUs, surpassing the previous high for the month set in January 2022 by 21,455 TEUs. This surge in imports occurred amid a backdrop of tariff volatility, with the U.S. imposing a new 10% tariff on Chinese goods as of February 4 while more aggressive 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada were paused until March to allow for further negotiations.  

January imports from China saw a notable 10.6% rise over December, reaching 997,909 TEUs—just 2.4% shy of the all-time high of 1,022,912 TEUs set in July 2024. Year-over-year, volumes from China increased by 10.2% from January 2024, reflecting strong demand for Chinese imports; however, the new 10% tariff coupled with the Chinese Lunar New Year (January 29 – February 12) creates uncertainty for importers and may disrupt trade flows in the coming months. 

Descartes’ February logistics update underscores a strong start to 2025 in terms of overall U.S. container import volumes but also highlights the risks tied to trade policy tensions. U.S. importers are facing higher costs as tariffs evolve, which could disrupt global trade patterns. Ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East adds another layer of complexity. These combined factors present the potential for supply chain volatility during the early months of 2025, posing challenges for businesses navigating this unpredictable environment. 

At 2,487,470 TEUs, U.S. container imports in January 2025 reached record-breaking volumes for the month (see Figure 1). This surge comes amid rising trade tensions between the U.S. and its top trading partners, with importers pushing to secure goods ahead of tariff hikes.  

Figure 1: U.S. Container Import Volume Year-over-Year Comparison 

Select year to toggle data./Month/In Millions	JAN	FEB	MAR	APR	MAY	JUN	JUL	AUG	SEP	OCT	NOV	DEC
2019	2.07	1.79	1.78	1.92	2.09	1.96	2.20	2.14	2.04	2.07	1.90	1.90
2020	2.04	1.67	1.61	1.84	1.69	1.83	2.15	2.34	2.29	2.47	2.27	2.36
2021	2.32	2.06	2.53	2.35	2.54	2.40	2.45	2.58	2.49	2.55	2.42	2.39
2022	2.47	2.31	2.56	2.46	2.62	2.48	2.53	2.53	2.22	2.22	1.95	1.93
2023	2.07	1.73	1.85	2.02	2.10	2.08	2.19	2.20	2.20	2.31	2.10	2.11
2024	2.27	2.14	2.15	2.21	2.35	2.30	2.56	2.48	2.52	2.49	2.37	2.37
2025	2.48

Source: Descartes Datamyne™

Compared to January 2024, January 2025 volumes were up by 9.4%, marking the highest volume ever recorded for the month and surpassing the previous record in January 2022 by 21,455 TEUs (see Figure 2). January imports continue to follow a seasonal, post-pandemic trend of month-over-month increases, rising 5.1% from December 2024.  

Figure 2: December to January U.S. Container Import Volume Comparison

Source: Descartes Datamyne™ 

In January 2025, container import volumes at the top 10 U.S. ports rose by 160,995 TEUs, an 8.3% increase from December 2024 (see Figure 3). The Port of Long Beach led the growth with an increase of 85,008 TEUs, followed by New York/New Jersey (up 68,167 TEUs) and Seattle (up 16,858 TEUs). Conversely, the Port of Savannah saw the largest decline (down 16,695 TEUs), followed by Tacoma (down 7,222 TEUs). Notably, the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach and Houston recorded their highest January volumes in seven years, with 484,232 TEUs, 475,376 TEUs and 166,944 TEUs, respectively. 

Figure 3: December 2024 to January 2025 Comparison of Import Volumes at Top 10 U.S. Ports 

Source: Descartes Datamyne™ 

In January 2025, U.S. import volume from China increased by 10.6% over December to 997,909 TEUs—just 2.4% lower than the peak in July 2024 (1,022,913 TEUs) (see Figure 4). Year-over-year, January imports from China increased 10.2%. The rise in import volume this January can be mainly attributed to U.S. importers bracing for tariffs on China, along with the additional influence of the Chinese New Year, which typically drives an increase in shipments ahead of the holiday. The top three commodity categories (HS-2 codes) for January 2025 were HS-94 (Furniture, Bedding, etc.), HS-39 (Plastics and Articles Thereof) and HS-84 (Nuclear Reactors, Boilers, Machinery, etc.). China accounted for 40.1% of total U.S. container imports in January, a 0.9% increase from December and 1.4% below the February 2022 peak of 41.5%. 

Figure 4: January 2024–January 2025 Comparison of U.S. Total and Chinese TEU Container Volume Relative to Chinese Import Record 

Source: Descartes Datamyne

In January 2025, U.S. container import volume from the top 10 countries of origin (CoO) increased by 117,140 TEUs, representing a 6.9% increase from December (see Figure 5). Among these countries, China (up 95,390 TEUs) and Vietnam (up 18,364 TEUs) experienced the largest volume increases. In contrast, Germany (down 10,020 TEUs) recorded the most significant volume decrease. 

Figure 5: December 2024 to January 2025 Comparison of U.S. Import Volumes from Top 10 Countries of Origin 

Source: Descartes Datamyne

For the eighth consecutive month, the top five West Coast ports continued to capture a larger share of U.S. container import volumes compared to their East and Gulf Coast counterparts. January data highlights a widening gap despite the East and Gulf Coast’s share increasing from 37.1% to 37.7% and the West Coast’s share increasing by a smaller margin of 1.9% to reach 46.8%. Overall, the dominance of the top 10 ports strengthened in January, capturing 84.5% of total U.S. imports, up from 82.0% in December (see Figure 6).  

Figure 6: Volume Analysis for Top Ports, West Coast Ports and East and Gulf Coast Ports

Source: Descartes Datamyne

When looking at total volumes across all West Coast ports for 2024, West Coast ports recovered market share lost during 2022 and 2023, closing the year with 45.1% of total U.S. imports (see Figure 7). 

Figure 7: Share of U.S. Container Imports that Enter via West Coast Ports (2019 – 2024) 

Source: Descartes Datamyne™

Overall, port transit time delays increased across the top 10 U.S. ports in January over December, mainly due to longer delays at East and Gulf Coast ports (see Figure 8). The largest improvements were at Long Beach where delays were reduced by 2.8 days and at Tacoma where delays were reduced by 1.8 days. The largest increases in delays were at Savannah, New York/New Jersey and Charleston, lengthening by 1.7 days, 1.6 days and 1.3 days, respectively. 

Figure 8: Monthly Average Transit Delays (in days) for the Top 10 Ports (Nov. 2024 – Jan. 2025) 

Source: Descartes Datamyne™

Note: Descartes’ definition of port transit delay is the difference as measured in days between the Estimated Arrival Date, which is initially declared on the bill of lading, and the date when Descartes receives the CBP-processed bill of lading data.

January 2025 Gulf Coast imports (229,403 TEUs) increased by 6.7% from December (215,069 TEUs) and were slightly above the 12-month average (226,785 TEUs) (see Figure 9). This recovery may represent a return to normal traffic as the ILA and USMX reached a tentative agreement ahead of the January 15 deadline. With rebounding volumes, port transit times at Gulf Coast ports extended in January, with overall delays increasing by approximately 8% from December. 

Figure 9: February 2024 to January 2025 U.S. Gulf Coast Container Imports 

Source: Descartes Datamyne™

On February 4, the U.S. enacted an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports and extended trade negotiations with Mexico and Canada to March after last-minute agreements paused a planned 25% tariff on imports from both countries. These developments add significant uncertainty to global trade, increasing concerns about rising import costs, supply chain disruptions, and potential economic instability. As trade tensions escalate, businesses and consumers alike may face the risk of higher prices and prolonged market volatility. 

Shipping companies begin to return to the Red Sea but remain wary, after Yemen’s Houthi rebels pledged to halt attacks following the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. While carriers continue to monitor the situation, no timeline has been set for restoring regular routes. The disruption of Red Sea voyages has driven up global shipping costs and, if the ceasefire collapses, the Red Sea passage is likely to be disrupted again. This could further destabilize trade conditions in the Middle East and place additional strain on international supply chains. 

The United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) and the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) reached a tentative agreement ahead of the January 15 deadline. The negotiated contracted will result in a 62% wage increase over six years for ILA workers and will be retroactive to October 1, 2024. Once finalized, the new agreement is expected to resolve labor concerns at East and Gulf Coast ports. 

U.S. container import volume exceeded the 2.4 million TEU mark in January 2025, increasing 5.1% from December and 9.4% over January 2024. While the economy continues to exceed expectations, new tariffs on Chinese imports, the threat of potentially aggressive tariffs against Mexico and Canada in March, and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East may create challenges for global supply chains. Here is what Descartes will be watching in 2025: 

• Expanded tariffs and other potential ‘protectionist’ trade policies. Depending on the short- to medium-term priorities of the Trump administration, broader and deeper tariffs applied to a wide array of goods could compel U.S. importers to significantly re-engineer their supply chains, putting additional pressure on global logistics infrastructure. The impact of new and potential tariffs appears to have driven U.S. container imports higher in January, as businesses prepared for rising import costs on foreign goods. The effect of high volumes on port delays, however, was mixed this month. 

• Monthly TEU volumes between 2.4M and 2.6M. This level may stress ports and inland logistics until infrastructure improvements are made. With seven consecutive months of container import volumes at the lower end of this range, maritime logistics operations at the top U.S. ports may be experiencing varying levels of strain on from month-to-month; however, overall port transit time delays are not significantly lengthening. January is the seventh month of elevated volumes since container imports broke 2.5M TEUs in July 2024.  

• Port transit wait times. If they decrease, it’s an indication of improved global supply chain efficiencies or that the demand for goods and logistics services is declining. While port transit time delays increased in January at eight of the top 10 U.S. ports, ports appear to be managing consecutive months of higher volumes with mixed delays and averting the severe congestion and significant delays experienced during the pandemic. 

• The economy. The U.S. is an import-driven economy, so economic health is an important indicator of container import volumes. Following the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve borrowing rate was left unchanged at 4.25% while reported inflation was 2.9%. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics November employment report, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% while employers added 256,000 jobs. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 18-19. 

• Middle East conflict. Houthi attacks have influenced carriers to forego the Suez Canal since the latter half of 2023, raising costs and extending transit times around the Cape of Good Hope. Although the Houthis have declared a ceasefire on vessels in the Red Sea, carriers remain cautious and hesitant to fully resume operations along the trade route. If the Houthi ceasefire is lifted, carriers may once again divert traffic around the Cape of Good Hope rather than reinstating Red Sea passage. So far, the ceasefire has had minimal impact on cargo volumes or transit delays for East and Gulf Coast ports. 

U.S. container import volumes in January surged past 2.4 million TEUs, setting a record for the month. This spike highlights importers frontloading goods in anticipation of new trade policies from the Trump administration. Meanwhile, ILA and USMX reached an agreement that, once finalized, is expected to help stabilize labor at South Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports and reduce the risk of future strikes disrupting port operations. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to strain global supply chains, though a temporary ceasefire in the Red Sea may offer carriers some relief. The biggest hurdle facing global supply chains is the uncertainty associated with additional tariffs on U.S. trading partners, which are expected to upend trade flows and reshape the trade landscape. Descartes will continue to monitor these developments, leveraging Descartes Datamyne along with U.S. government and industry data to provide valuable insights into global shipping trends in the months ahead. 

Short-term: 

• Consider modelling the impacts of increased tariffs on imported goods, and whether a change in sourcing strategy could mitigate potentially higher costs.  
• Monitor port volumes and delays to assess trade disruptions as imports remain between the 2.4M and 2.6M levels that have historically stressed U.S. maritime logistics infrastructure. 
• Track the Middle East conflict as carriers begin to return to the Red Sea as the Houthi ceasefire holds. 
• Evaluate the impact of inflation and the Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Hamas conflicts on logistics costs and capacity constraints. Ensure that key trading partners are not on sanctions lists.  

Near-term:  

• For companies that have cargo moving through the Suez Canal, evaluate the impact of extended rerouting caused by Middle East conflicts. 

Long-term:  

• Evaluate supplier and factory location density to mitigate reliance on over-taxed trade lanes and regions of the globe that have the potential for conflict. Density creates economy of scale but also risk, and subsequent logistics capacity crisis highlights the downside. Conflicts do not happen “overnight” so now is the time to address this potentially business disrupting issue.